An online journal of politics, policy, and society with a special focus on Maryland -- Contact: on_background at yahoo.com.

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Let's Talk About Polls

Do we have an expert on polling or at least interpreting polls in the audience?

I ask because the SurveyUSA poll of Maryland voters on the senatorial and gubernatorial race is making me scratch my head. Maybe you can help.

So, it's not a big surprise that whites favor Ehrlich but maybe a bit that they tilt toward Steele at the same rate. And Steele does significantly bettter among African Americans. The numbers that threw me were that among Hispanics Ehrlich beats O'Malley 50 to 17%, and Steele bests Cardin 61 to 37%. This isn't what most of us expected. What's the deal? Anyone want to take a look at the methodology to take a crack at whether these numbers make sense?